there doesn’t seem to be much of a middle ground when it comes to the iphone, people are either all excited about it and think it will be biggest thing since sliced bread, or they are utterly pessimistic saying it will be a complete failure. apple itself has recently upped the ante saying other phones are stupid and should certainly not cost anything, and mentioned they wouls sell 10 million in ‘07 (which mostly be US sales since outside US sales just start later in the year).
i think the phone itself is certainly a tech and design gem. there is a lot to like: the touchscreen, the navigation, the user interface, the menue, the look of it. but then there are also a lot of things that are not to like: the size and most of all the weight, the battery life, the limitation to one carrier only, no 3G (at least not in its early version), the price of it (especially since the $500 price point comes in addition to a 2 year contract), and a closed system that seems to allow little room for third-party developers (in a way exactly what operators want).
while i think that the positives will result in the iphone having a huge impact on how mobile phones will be designed in the coming 10 years, i think that the negatives will lead to apple not coming close to its goal of 10 million units sold by the end of this year. key reasons for the sales failure will be the price and the size of the iphone. people say it is not that big, but unlike other phones the iphone will require some sort of screen protection making it even more bulky and heavy, and users are willing to have large size devices for work, but will want something small and sexy for every day usage (especially the Friday and Saturday night usage) hence the success of the Razr and most of the Samsun phones. in the mobile phone space small is beautiful, that and good battery life, and the iphone is failing on both. there will certainly be a market for gadget geeks, but this will not be worth 10 million devices (especially not since not all of them are on cingular and would have to justify switching carriers).
another problem of the iphone to reach a mass market is that it is no longer a simple device. the ipod attracted such a large market by offering the best and simplest mobile music player. people were ok that it didn’t have a radio or other whistles and bells, because it was easy to use and operate. the iphone is anything but easy. well yes, things all look intuitive when steve presents them, zooming into a picture is done by moving two fingers across the pictures, well but for users who have been used to nokia and motorola menues, keys, and arrors this will not necessarily be intutive. plus, the phone is not only a phone but it is a whole bunch of different devices put into one (phone, camera, web browser, email clients, mp3 and video player, picture viewer … did i miss anything?). do people need all this in one device? most people will probably ask themselves this question and not come up with a yes. the additional problem with the iphone is that it is no longer a great music player since navigation is not harder than on the regular ipod, at the same time it is not a great phone either, the touch screen will make sms writing harder and the battery life is not amazing. so in the end the iphone will be a device that does a lot of things well, but nothing great. in a way the reasons why so many mp3 players failed against the ipod.
guy kawasaki (another apple fan) has an interesting list of questions about the iphone … Great Expectations
will i buy an iphone? — no. i thought i would, but then decided not to. why? because if i buy a phone i want it to be a good phone and anything else is secondary, the phone functionality has to be great (including messaging). that’s why once the prada phone was announced my excitement for the iphone already diminished. but then the other day i saw the sony ericsson w880i and the thing that sold me was the 79gr in weight, the overall size of the device, the amazing reception, and battery life of more than a week of standby. oh yes, and it looks great, and no finger prints, and did i mention is has a gig of memory for music. what more can i ask for in a mobile phone?
